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CSI's Global Climate Change Initiative

Written By: Meghna Tare

Global warming refers to the effect on the climate of anthropogenic activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation activities, which cause large amounts of ‘greenhouse gases’ to be released into the atmosphere, of which the most important is carbon dioxide. The other greenhouse gases are nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s), methane, and sulfur hexafluoride.

Source: www.ipcc.ch

Greenhouse gases allow short wavelength light, such as ultraviolet light, to pass but not long wavelength light (e.g. infrared radiation). Accordingly, the infrared (heat) is trapped near the Earth’s surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be (See: All good things in life come to an end! But what if life comes to an end?). Associated with this warming are changes in the climate, both global and regional (Houghton, 2005). The scientific opinion on climate change, as expressed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) and explicitly endorsed by the national science academies of the G8 nations, is that the average global temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and that it is likely that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

Source: www.ipcc.ch

Atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased from around 280 parts per million (by volume) in 1800 to around 315 in 1958 and 380 in 2005, a 31% increase over 200 years (IPCC, 2001). Other greenhouse gas emissions have also increased. Future carbon dioxide levels are expected to rise due to ongoing economic development dependent on fossil fuel usage, though the actual trend for the future will depend on economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there will be both global and regional climatic change, altered precipitation patterns, occurrence of extreme events such as droughts and hurricanes and an increase in climate variability (Houghton et al., 2001) during the next 100 years (IPCC, 1995, 2001). According to ice core climate record, today’s rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, at 380 parts per million by volume, is 27 % higher than its highest recorded level during the last 650,000 years (Brook, 2005).

Source: www.ipcc.ch

 Potential Impacts of Climate Change

The thermohaline circulation is a global ocean circulation. It is driven by differences in the density of the sea water which is controlled by temperature and salinity (Broecker, 1995). The thermohaline circulation is sometimes called the “ocean conveyor belt” and plays an important role in supplying heat to the polar regions. There are projections that global warming could shut down or slow down this thermohaline circulation and trigger cooling in the North Atlantic, or lessen warming in regions such as Europe which are dependent on the Gulf Stream to keep them warm. (See: Global warming and changing oceans). 

Source: www.ipcc.ch

The oceans have a tremendous capacity to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, making the water more acidic. “Ocean acidification” is the name given to the ongoing decrease in the pH of the oceans, caused by their uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Between 1751 and 2004 surface ocean pH is estimated to have dropped from approximately 8.25 to 8.14 (Jacobson, 2005). This changing ocean chemistry may lead to sharp decline in marine biodiversity. Many species of marine organisms that form calcite shells may become extinct as a direct result of ocean acidification (See: Ocean Acidification Bad for Shells and Reefs and CO2 and Ocean Acidification). Observed species composition changes may be driven by the changes in ocean acidification and beginning with changes to species at the bottom of the food web and affecting species throughout the food web all the way to top predators in a cascade of effects. We are already seeing dramatic changes of indicators species in all of the world's oceans.

Glaciers have been retreating worldwide since the end of the Little Ice Age (around 1850), but in recent decades glaciers have begun melting at rates that cannot be explained by historical trends. Projected climate change over the next century will further affect the rate at which glaciers melt. Average global temperatures are expected to raise another 1.4-5.8ºC by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2001). Glaciers from the Andes to the Himalayas are melting bringing long-term threats of higher sea levels that could swamp island states and low-lying coastal areas. Like a canary in a coal mine, the dwindling of the glaciers is visible evidence, an indicator that the earth really is getting hotter (See: Himalayan Glaciers and Global Warming Melts Alaska’s Glaciers). Read about how melting glaciers are predicted to cause significant rises in sea level over the course of the twenty-first century increasing the risk of coastal flooding for countries like Maldives and India ( See: Is Global warming flooding India? and Rising Sea-Levels Submerging the Maldives).   

The geographic ranges of most plant and animal species are limited by climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, humidity, and wind. Any shift in the magnitude or variability of these factors in a given location will impact the organisms living there. Species sensitive to temperature may respond to a warmer climate by moving to cooler locations at higher latitudes or elevations (McMichael et al, 1996) (See: Climate Change Threatens Monarch Butterflies). Species that already live at higher elevation are likely to lose their habitat altogether and go extinct.  

The Arctic's sea ice is home to a wide variety of wildlife including polar bears, arctic foxes, seals and walruses. The sea ice is also used as a transportation route by caribou and is a traditional hunting ground for the Inuit. Long term temperature records from the surrounding land masses in the Arctic, including ice cores, tree rings, and lake bed pollen samples, suggest that the Arctic land area is now warmer than it has been in at least 400 years. This warming trend is creating significant impact on the Inuit community and depriving them of their daily livelihood. (See: On Thin Ice: Study of Climate Change Impact on Polar Inuit of NW Greenland)           

Coral reefs, atolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, can be especially vulnerable to climate change. Climate change may increase existing risks of extinction of already threatened or vulnerable species. Biodiversity loss is the likely outcome of climate change and may exceed that seen on earth over the last 50 million years. In 1998 coral reefs around the world experienced the most extensive and severe bleaching in recorded history. If the overall warming is accompanied by more frequent periods of sustained high temperatures, mass bleaching events will become more frequent and widespread (Wilkinson et al., 1999)(See: Disappearing Plankton: Loss of a Carbon Sink  Global Warming to Contribute to Loss of Mangrove Forests, Global Warming Bleaching Corals).

Warmer temperatures increase the probability of drought. Greater evaporation, particularly during summer and fall, could exacerbate drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires (See: Climate Trend and Forest Fires). Extremes events like heat waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, landslides, storms, hurricanes and tornadoes may become more intense and occur more frequently. These severe weather and geological events will have negative effects on society by damaging homes and villages and resulting in loss of life (See: Global Warming and Hurricanes).

The Conservation Science Institute has launched a global warming and climate changes initiative and will continue to synthesize and distribute information about this topic through this CSI climate change web site, the CSI Report and by promoting CSI Fellows who work on this topic. CSI has assigned Fellow Meghna Tare to coordinate the CSI global warming and climate change program and ask that you direct questions and inquiring to her about this program. You can also support the CSI global warming and climate change program through donations to CSI and becoming a member or you may want to consider applying for a CSI fellowship.

References

Broecker, W. 1995. Chaotic Climate, Scientific American, November, 62-68

Brook, E., 2005. Tiny bubbles tell all. Science 310, 1285-12

Jacobson, M. Z. 2005. Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange and ocean equilibrium chemistry. J. Geophys. Res. Atm. 110, D07302

Houghton, J. 2005. Global warming. Rep. Prog. Phys. 68:1343–140

Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden and D. Xiaosu, eds. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.)

McMichael, A.J., A. Haines, and R. Slooff. 1996. Climate Change and Human Health. World Health Organization, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environmental Program, Geneva: 305.

Pittock, B., D. Wratt, R. Basher, B. Bates, M. Finlayson, H. Gitay, A. Woodward, A. Arthington, P. Beets, B. Biggs. 2001. in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.).

Raven, J. A. 2005. Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The Royal Society, London, UK. This report can be found at www.royalsoc.ac.uk

Wilkinson, C.O., H. C. Linden, G. Hodgson, J. Rubens, and A. E. Strong. 1999. Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of 1998 coral mortality in the Indian Ocean: An ENSO impact and a warning of future change? Ambio 28: 188-196

Other related pages from CSI

Desertification
Water Shortage
Forest Fires

Beyond Global Climate Change
Hurricane Katrina
Interview with Tom Okey (CSI's Science Director) on Biodiversity and Extinction (Mp3 6MB)

Posters
Tom Okey's poster on Climate Change Impacts on Australia's Marine Ecosystem
2MB

Articles on Global Climate Change in the CSI Report

CO2 and Ocean Acidification
Global Warming Bleaching Corals
Global Warming to Contribute to Loss of Mangrove Forests
On Thin Ice: Study of Climate Change Impact on Polar Inuit of NW Greenland
Global Warming Melts Alaska’s Glaciers

Disappearing Planktons
Global Warming and Hurricanes
INTERVIEW - Polar Regions Take Centre Stage in Climate Crisis
Is Global warming flooding India?
Climate Change and Arctic Lakes
Three Gorges Dam in China and Global Warming
Cities Combating Climate Change
Rising Sea-Levels Submerging the Maldives
Climate Change Threatens Monarch Butterflies
Climate Change Perceptions and Science
The taste of Global warming
Climate Trend and Forest Fires

Useful Links:

South Australia's Strategic Plan at http://www.stateplan.sa.gov.au/home.php
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Climate/ClimateFrameset.html
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/
Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change: Third Assessment Report IPCC

National Research Council: Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions
U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change

Updated 08/01/2006

 

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